There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
Qatar Petroleum while confirming the withdrawal, tweeted, "Qatar announces it was withdrawing from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries effective 1 January 2019."
The revised projection comes after a 17% rise in the April-June.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
Indian basket at 6-month low of $49.11 a bbl
India's macroeconomic situation has benefited from oil prices' decline.
Equity indices frittered away a good start to close with modest losses on Monday, pressured by heavy selling in metal stocks after the government imposed export duties on steel-making raw materials to curb soaring prices. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened strong and gained momentum as the session progressed, but came under severe selling pressure in afternoon trade to close 37.78 points or 0.07 per cent lower at 54,288.61. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty slipped 51.45 points or 0.32 per cent to end at 16,214.70.
The ongoing oil price decline is mainly a result of oversupply in the global market
Russian traders have started asking for payments in ruble for their exports to India in a move that could derail trade between the two countries which gathered pace after the war in Europe. This is because Indian importers are unable to pay in ruble. The India-Russia trade gathered pace after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February this year. In the April-June quarter, India's imports from Russia were valued at $9.27 billion, up 369 per cent year on year.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
After steep correction in valuations, these have turned attractive but upside will depend on diesel price rises and export-parity pricing.
The government on Thursday allowed free inter-state wheeling of renewable energy used in the production of green hydrogen and ammonia as it seeks to boost usage of the carbon-free fuel and make India an export hub. Unveiling the first part of the much-awaited National Hydrogen Policy, Power and New and Renewable Energy Minister Raj Kumar Singh said the government is targeting production of 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030. Oil refineries to steel plants require hydrogen to produce finished products.
The ministry is preparing a draft note for consideration of the CCPA on pricing of diesel, kerosene and LPG, official sources said.
Rosneft bought a 49 per cent stake in Essar Oil's refinery port and petrol pumps, while Netherlands-based Trafigura Group Pte, one of the world's biggest commodity trading companies, and Russian investment fund United Capital Partners split another 49 per cent equity equally.
The rupee breached the 80-mark against the dollar on Tuesday. The steady depreciation in the value of the rupee against the US dollar is likely to prove expensive for corporate India. The listed companies' revenue expenses in foreign currency or imports exceed their export revenues or revenue earnings in forex. In their latest financial year, BSE500 companies, excluding banks and non-banking finance companies and insurance (BFSI), reported combined forex expenses of Rs 12.31 trillion against forex earnings of around Rs 10 trillion.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd slipped 59 places to rank 155th on the 2021 Fortune Global 500 list released on Monday. Reliance took a beating on the rankings as revenues dropped owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is its lowest ranking since 2017. Walmart continues to top the Fortune list with a revenue of $524 billion, followed by China's State Grid at $384 billion.
China is slowing down, Europe is barely afloat and the US is meeting a larger chunk of its own demand.
Gautam Adani on Tuesday said his ports-to-energy conglomerate never slowed or stopped investing in the country as the group's success is based on its alignment with the India growth story. Speaking at the annual shareholder meeting of the group companies, he said the previously announced $70 billion investment in new energy business will help turn India from being a net importer of oil and gas to an exporter of clean energy. "Never have we walked away from investing in India, never have we slowed our investments," he said. "We believe our scale, our diversified business, and our track record of performance positions us very strongly to continue to perform well in a variety of market conditions."
IT and pharma companies again save the day; mask pain in domestic consumption.
The earnings of India Inc hit a record high in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4), compared with their poor showing in the previous two quarters of the financial year. The rise in earnings, however, is exclusively led by banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) companies. A better-than-expected showing by banks and non-bank lenders in Q4FY23 more than compensated for the earnings contraction in the non-BFSI space.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
After a turnaround in performance by Indian equity markets since July that has seen the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 wipe out the year-to-date losses, analysts suggest investors start nibbling into stocks that are focused on the domestic economy. While they say intermittent corrections, led by policies of global central banks and other economic data, cannot be ruled out, analysts expect India's relative outperformance among global equity markets to continue as it looks better placed with a healthy economic recovery, and remains one of the fastest growing major economies. In this backdrop, Neeraj Chadawar, head of quantitative equity strategy at Axis Securities, believes that amid global slowdown, aggressive tightening by the central banks, and preference for domestic interests first (by the local government), export-oriented themes are likely to be muted or will deliver conservative returns in the near-term.
The output of eight core sectors grew by 16.8 per cent in May, mainly due to a low base effect and uptick in production of natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity, official data released on Wednesday showed. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 21.4 per cent in May 2020 due to the lockdown restrictions imposed to control the spread of the COVID-19 infections. In March this year, these key sectors had recorded a growth of 11.4 per cent, and 60.9 per cent in April.
Markets across the globe are rallying on hopes that the US Federal Reserve won't lift interest rates until 2016.
The Russian-Ukraine war can hit the global supply chains that are already constrained due to the pandemic and the worst impact will be on ongoing chip shortage because the warring nations brutally control supplies of key raw materials that go into making semiconductors, warns a report. Since Russia controls as much as 44 per cent of global palladium suppplies, Ukraine produces a significant 70 per cent of the global supply of neon -- the two key raw materials that go into making chips. The markets can expect the global chip shortage, that began with the pandemic, to worsen if the military conflict lingers on, says a Moody's Analytics report on Friday.
A more effective promotion of domestic manufacturing and mining could significantly reduce the trade deficit in key sectors, says T N Ninan.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in July.
The Reserve Bank is working with the government to thrash out a payment settlement solution for Indo-Russian trade, which is hit by the economic sanctions imposed on Moscow after it invaded Ukraine, but asserted that any such solution will be 'sensitive' to the prevailing economic blockade, the central bank said. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das was quick to add that it is a matter that the government has to deal with first, and as far as the central bank is concerned, obviously, we will not do anything which goes against the sanctions. RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said since the Ukraine war has disrupted trade and payments, we are discussing with all stakeholders, and at the same time, we are sensitive to the economic sanctions.
The output of eight core infrastructure sectors contracted for the third month in a row by 1.3 per cent in December 2020, dragged down by poor show by crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel and cement sectors. The core sectors had expanded by 3.1 per cent in December 2019, according to the provisional data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Friday. Barring coal and electricity, all sectors recorded negative growth in December 2020. During April-December 2020-21, the sectors' output declined by 10.1 per cent against a growth rate of 0.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
Chinese stock markets suffered their biggest single-day drop since the global financial crisis.
Brokerages expect India Inc to report an upturn in earnings for the March quarter of 2022-23, after a relatively muted showing in the previous two quarters. This growth is expected to be led by banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies, FMCG firms, and automobile makers. The combined net profit of the Nifty50 companies (excluding Adani Enterprises) is expected to have grown 15.6 per cent to Rs 1.77 trillion in Q4FY23, from Rs 1.53 trillion a year ago.
RBML - the joint venture of Reliance Industries Ltd and supermajor BP - has told the government that fuel retailing for the private sector in India has become unsustainable after market-controlling public sector firms frequently froze petrol and diesel prices at rates way below the cost, sources said. Despite a surge in oil prices, state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) first froze petrol and diesel rates for a record 137 days beginning early November 2021 when five states including Uttar Pradesh went to the polls, and last month again went into a hiatus that is now 47 days old. "They (Reliance BP Mobility Ltd) has written to the petroleum ministry over the fuel pricing issue," a highly placed source in the government, who didn't want to be quoted, told reporters.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's biggest oil firm, on Tuesday reported a 31.4 per cent drop in the fourth quarter net profit as record refining margins were wiped away by a margin squeeze in petrochemicals and losses on auto fuel sales. Standalone net profit of Rs 6,021.88 crore, or Rs 6.56 a share, in January-March, compared with Rs 8,781.30 crore, or Rs 9.56 per share, in the same period a year back, the company said in a stock exchange filing. Sequentially, the profit was higher than Rs 5,860.80 crore in the previous quarter.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's top oil firm, has bought as much as 3 million barrels of crude oil that Russia had offered at steep discount to prevailing international rates, sources said. The purchase, made through a trader, is the first since Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine that brought international pressure for isolating Putin administration. Sources aware of the matter said IOC bought Urals crude for May delivery at a discount of $20-25 a barrel to dated Brent.
Russia has been grappling with sanctions slapped by the US and its allies over Moscow's invasion of Crimea.
India must reckon with the possibility that it will struggle to attract higher overseas investment.
Production of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity contracted. The record contraction in the growth rate of eight core sectors will affect the Index of Industrial Production.
Though there have been no cancellations of contracts by invoking the force majeure clause, a number of clients - especially in the worst-affected sectors like travel and hospitality, oil and gas, as well as manufacturing - have started asking for reducing level of IT support.
